When a company plans a new plant, an expansion, an acquisition or a joint venture, the numbers get plenty of attention. The accounts are audited. The market assumptions underneath them, the prices, demand and margins the whole plan rests on, usually are not.

We check them against the record. We work for the companies making the plans, and for the banks and investors behind them.

Prices
Do the prices in the plan, project report or model match what the product actually sold for? We compare them with our assessed prices for the same grades and periods.

Demand and imports
The demand and import figures in the plan, checked against our trade data and the demand we see from end users.

Margins
Did the feedstock margin hold up in past downturns, such as 2020? We show how the spread moved through the last two cycles.

New capacity and competition
Other plants being built or planned for the same product, from our project monitoring software, and which producers can already make it, at what cost.

Customers and suppliers
Those named in the plan, checked against observed trade.

You get a findings note written for your board, lender or investment committee, with the workings attached. We work to your timetable, which is usually short: two to three weeks. We need the plan, project report or financial model, and the market assumptions in it.

We check the plan; we do not write it
If you need the demand and capacity numbers built from scratch, see Demand and capacity forecasting.

•  The plan’s prices tested against our assessed prices, by grade
•  Demand and import assumptions checked against our data
•  Feedstock spread history through the last two cycles
•  New capacity coming up, and who else can make the product, at what cost
•  Customers and suppliers checked against observed trade
•  A findings note for your board, lender or committee, with the workings attached

Time
Two to three weeks, to your timetable.

What we need from you
The plan, project report or financial model, and the market assumptions in it.

Terms
Scope, time and fee are agreed in writing before work starts.

What this work is not
This is commercial and market analysis. It is not legal, tax, customs, regulatory or investment advice, and it is not a recommendation to buy, sell or acquire any business or security. Please take your own professional advice before acting on it.