Green ammonia: Export dreams meet grid math in government modelling – 14 Jan 2026

A government document quietly undercut the idea of green ammonia as an export-first fuel. Without sustained surplus electricity, electrolysis, air separation and synthesis together push utilisation — and costs — sharply against the system.

Far from bypassing grid constraints, the document models green ammonia as one of the most power-intensive fuel pathways.

Electrolysis dominates energy input, air separation adds load, and synthesis compounds losses — binding ammonia economics tightly to surplus power availability.

So those who are thinking of exporting may have to think again.