DAP: Dramatic drop expected, situation unlikely to improve in 2022 – 10 Nov 2021

India phosphate shipments are forecast to drop a dramatic 20% in 2021 due largely to limited supplies (as farmer demand has been relatively robust). DAP imports are down 42% y-o-y (through September) as India’s MRP and subsidy levels have made it the lowest netback market and have kept importer economics and domestic production in the red (production is down 18% y-o-y).

This has led to a significant decline in stocks (down 69% y-o-y) and notable pent-up demand that should result in higher 2022 shipments, though but whether that happens or not remains a moot point

The extent of the forecast increase in ‘22 shipments will be heavily dependent on further adjustments to subsidy levels, as recent ones have thus far not been sufficient, while global prices are expected to remain at current elevated levels through at least H1 2022

Read for an excellent update on what is going on